Getting Closer!

All weekend I worked on the Breeders' Cup Program for my fellow adventurers.  And I also put the finishing touches on our "Stable Competition" game that was so successful last spring.  Everyone has to have a design for their stable silks, here's mine:

Note the Florida Gator theme :)

And I also finished my PRELIMINARY selections.....with two weeks to go, here they are.....

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Friday November 5

$500,000 Grade 2
Breeders' Cup Marathon

There are three horses I would "lean" towards, but no one I have any confidence in....

PASS

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$1 million Grade 2
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

I was very impressed with Winter Memories win in New York. The others are all lumped together in a "who knows?" pile. I was impressed enough to double the bet.....

$10 to win on WINTER MEMORIES

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$1 million Grade 2
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

As of today there are three solid contenders that I wouldn't have any problem backing in this race. My final decision will be based on the past performances and comparing their 2010 campaign/records with the profiles from "Crushing the Cup 2010."

Sweet August Moon was dominant in the A Gleem at Hollywood this summer when she paid over $26 for me - as a California sprinter she'd be a good fit. Secret Gypsy is the best filly sprinter on the east coast, and she was a short priced dominant winner for me this summer - she is a solid contender. But, if I were betting today I would go with Switch. She's been in stakes races at all distances and surfaces in California and she's solid. But what makes her my top selection is that she was a very narrow 2nd to the Queen - Zenyatta. If Switch prepares well and shows that race didn't take too much out of her, the turn back to 7 furlongs - and as a Southern Cal sprinter - she'd be a great selection!

$10 to win on SWITCH

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$2 million Grade 1 Emirates Airline
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf

Without having seen the past performances, EVERY publication and video I've seen about the Breeders' Cup talks about what a short-priced and solid favorite Midday will be. She won this race last year, and the "repeater" angle makes her a good fit for the profile; the fact she is from Europe is even better. She may well be the "Best" of the 2010 Breeders' Cup.

$50 to win on MIDDAY

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$2 million Grade 1 Grey Goose
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

I would love to see Awesome Feather win as a Calder-based filly. I would also be happy to see Tell A Kelly win as she was my pick (running 2nd) in the Oak Tree Oaks. Not enough confidence in either to hazard a bet....though I'd be tempted if Awesome Feather was a big price.

PASS

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$2 million Grade 1
Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic

This race comes down to three fillies - two solid contenders and an interesting longshot. I've followed Acoma ever since she was a big winner for me last fall at Churchill.....on the turf. She was 2nd twice over her home turf and did not run well in the Beverly D, a race she'd pointed to. But then she surprised on the main track (albeit synthetic) at Keeneland in the Grade 1 Spinster. She has to be considered here.

But the two favorites will be Life at Ten and Blind Luck. Life at Ten has won twice for me as the "BEST" of the Day, but she needs to be loose on the lead, and unless the past performances show that she is the only front runner I'd be willing to go against her. I've made Blind Luck "my horse" all summer, ever since her thrilling win in the Kentucky Oaks - HERE AT CHURCHILL! She'd be my solid choice in here.

$20 to win on BLIND LUCK

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Saturday November 6

$1 million Grade 2
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

Rogue Romance was a big time winner at Belmont with a devastating finishing kick. Good enough to get a minimum play to kick off the Saturday races. I would be open to a Euro runner if they came with some solid credentials.

$5 to win on ROGUE ROMANCE

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$1 million Grade 1
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile

Twirling Candy would still be my selection here, but he doesn't appear to be headed to the Breeders' Cup. If he shows up, I'd re-think my pick.....so I reserve that right! Musket Man SHOULD have won the Monmouth Cup as he was 2/5 and laid all over the field, but failed to pass the price front-runner. That 9 furlong race would have him set up nicely for this race....but he appears to be going to the Classic - BIG mistake! I was impressed with Haynesfield's wire-to-wire win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup going 9 furlongs over Classic co-favorite Blame. The turnback to a 1-turn mile may be him on a lonesome lead; and that's enough to make him my choice.

$5 to win on HAYNESFIELD

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$1 million Grade 1
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint

I would give Gotta Have Her a serious look if she shows up here as she's been a solid closer on the Santa Anita turf, sprinting as well as routing. Silver Timber would be a solid fit, and he loves Churchill Downs. But my horse, all year for this race has been Chamberlain Bridge. I've been wavering as he does not seem to want to rate off the pace this year, but instead come from well back.......then I read in "Crushing the Cup" that the winning profile for the Churchill 5 furlong turf distance - DEEP CLOSER! I think they've been prepping him all year long. SOLID SELECTION!!!

$15 to win on CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE

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$2 million Grade 1 Grey Goose
Breeders' Cup Juvenile

I really thought this race came down to J P's Gusto vs. Boys at Tosconova. Then JP seemed to show he doesn't want a route of ground and Boys at T passed on the Champaign for no good reason. EVERYONE was raving about 2nd time starter Uncle Mo in the Champagne. Off a maiden win, could he jump right into Grade 1 stakes company, and get a route of ground. Indeed he could, and impressively. I think he's a SOLID favorite here.

$20 to win on UNCLE MO

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$2 million Grade 1 TVG
Breeders' Cup Mile

Without question I think that the Breeders' Cup Mile will be the most exciting race of the two days. Any one of six horses - who've all (but one) been my "BEST" would be a deserving winner. But two-time defending champion, the super French filly Goldikova is clearly the horse to beat. She has pointed for this race since winning last year. I was a little disconcerted when her rival from Europe - Paco Boy - who she's beaten many times, decided to come over.....what do they know? Why come across the Atlantic unless they think they have a good chance to turn the tables? And then there is the fact that no horse - EVER - has won a BC race three times. Still, hard to go against Goldikova unless in the pre-race preparations there is anything besides super confidence from her barn.

$30 to win on GOLDIKOVA

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$2 million Grade 1 Sentinent Jet
Breeders' Cup Sprint

Attaboy Roy was a dominant winner at Churchill this spring under Churchill super-jockey Calvin Borel. Then he was a beyond dominant winner of an added money sprint at Remington Park, with the stated goal that he'd train up to the BC Sprint. But he showed up on the turf a couple weeks ago at Keeneland....what was that about? I think it was to build some foundation. He's the sprint champ.

$10 to win on ATTABOY ROY

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$3 million Grade 1 Emirates Airline
Breeders' Cup Turf

I'm VERY on the fence here. The one thing I know is that it will be a Euro runner who wins. Which one? I will be shopping for a price play for sure - this race is WIDE OPEN! But for today, I'll land on Workforce who everyone was so happy to see make the trip over.

$5 to win on WORKFORCE

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$5 million Grade 1
Breeders' Cup Classic

Quality Road was a superhorse this winter and has had a very well planned campaign leading to this. But he had no excuse in being run down in the Whitney; and his win in the Woodward was less than impressive - I think he's in front turning for home, but has no answer when the finishers come calling. I think Lookin At Lucky will run big today; but he's not as good as these - yet. Next year!

That brings us down to Blame - who could be "Horse of the Year" with a win here, and he LOVES the Churchill strip and Zenyatta. Seriously - can anyone beat Zenyatta? I am a BIG TIME believer that they have never really asked her to run; and I also think she will be even better on the dirt - her two best races were the two on the dirt at Oaklawn. That's a scary thought. I am certain Zenyatta will be flying to the lead, right about the time she reaches the 16th pole.....right in front of us! What a "Classic" moment - she finishes unbeaten at 20-0 and a two-time BC Classic winner with us sitting there!

$50 to win on ZENYATTA