Getting Closer! Final Preparations.....

This week I worked VERY hard on preparing my Breeders' Cup Program:

I also did quite a big of research yesterday when the "Crushing Zone" arrived virtually:

The last phase of preparation will be to complete my "Stable Competition" Program:



Midday - Maybe The "BEST" of the Day!

In today's Daily Racing Form.....

Midday may be even sharper for F&M Turf defense

By Steve Andersen

Midday will be a strong favorite in an attempt to defend her title in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf on Nov. 5, a race that drew just 11 pre-entrants from Europe, Japan, and North America.  Midday won the 2009 BC Filly and Mare Turf at Santa Anita and is arguably in better form this year, having won 3 of 4 starts, with Group 1 wins in England and France in her last three races.

The list of starters may be fewer than the pre-entries. Hibaayeb, who won the Group 2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot in June and the Grade 1 Yellow Ribbon Stakes at Hollywood Park earlier this month, may not run, according to Simon Crisford, the racing manager for Sheikh Mohammed's Godolphin Racing.  Crisford said Wednesday that Hibaayeb may remain in California for the Hollywood Turf Cup against males on Nov. 13.

The list of pre-entries includes three other Grade 1 or Group 1 winners this year - Eclair de Lune (Beverly D. Stakes), Harmonious (Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup and American Oaks), and Plumania (Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud in France).  The other pre-entrants include 2010 stakes winners from Dubai (Red Desire), Kentucky (Hot Cha Cha), Virginia (Shared Account), Canada (Miss Keller), and Forever Together and Keertana, who have placed in stakes this year.

Forever Together won the 2008 Filly and Mare Turf, the year she was champion turf female, and was third last year. She is winless in five starts this year.


Zenyatta - The Breeders' Cup Classic

There she goes - how exciting to watch her live from the 4th row....less than 10 days!

More on Goldikova - its good, it's all GOOD!

Head hopes for unique feat with repeat victory

Trainer who rode dual Breeders' Cup Mile winner Miesque stands on brink of treble with Goldikova

Freddie Head, astride a grey hack, emerges through the mist and blushing trees. He has a trilby on his head. Honestly, these French. We have Newmarket, with its blasted heath and single, shabby thoroughfare. Here their elite racing stables nestle in a Bourbon hunting forest, among palaces, lakes and parkland.



This one houses a mare on the brink of history, but you would not know it. Yesterday morning even the fitful percussion of a farrier's hammer seemed to obtain the sustaining, staunch quality of some ageless grandfather clock. As the sun broke through, autumn vapours were coaxed from the tiled stables, from the straw muckheap. The Turf can span few greater contrasts than the one dividing this somnolent scene from the sweltering crucible of Santa Anita, where Goldikova has pulled off consecutive wins at the Breeders' Cup. But that's why her quest for the hat-trick, this time at Churchill Downs, lends due substance to its American billing as the Thoroughbred World Championships.

The locals may have eyes only for Zenyatta, risking her immaculate record of 19 wins in 19 starts in the Classic. No horse, after all, has ever won three Breeders' Cup races. Rather inconveniently, however, she may find a precedent intruding barely an hour before she lines up on Saturday week. For Goldikova has looked as good as ever this year, and was yesterday trading on Betfair as 5-4 favourite for the TVG Breeders' Cup Mile.

Head, welcoming a party of British journalists and cameramen, offered a qualified tribute to Zenyatta, who has tended to avoid open competition apart from that extraordinary performance in the Classic last year. "Zenyatta is amazing, too," he said. "But what I can say is that some Group Ones in America are more like Group One and a half [ie almost Group Twos]. They don't always meet together with the best, with the colts, with three- and four-year-olds. But of course she's a champion, you can see that in the way she parades herself. She has a big personality."

He is well qualified to pronounce on greatness, as the only man to have both trained and ridden a winner at the Breeders' Cup. Goldikova and Miesque represent the twin Everests of Head's career in racing: Miesque, herself a dual winner of the Breeders' Cup Mile, was perhaps the best of over 3,000 horses he steered home before retiring, aged 50, in 1997. Remarkably, in fact, it was only in winning the Prix de la Forêt earlier this month that Goldikova claimed outright, with 11, the record she had previously shared with Miesque as Europe's most prolific Group One winner. Seldom does destiny deal its cards with such symmetry. It was in Louisville, for instance, that Miesque won her second Mile.

Goldikova may be more pliant but she, too, particularly responds to the hectic environment of American racing. "The faster they go, the better she is," Head said. "That's why she's so brilliant out there. When they start, they go. Here everyone stops, holds back. She had a very hard draw last year, and was a long way behind in the back stretch. I was a little worried, I must say. But Olivier [Peslier] knew what he was doing."

She quickened twice to pull it out of the fire that day, producing one of the most visually dramatic surges in Breeders' Cup history – in no way diminished by the fact that Zenyatta promptly did something at least as spectacular. And she returns in even better heart this time round, having won the Forêt by relaxing in front – in contrast with last year, when she failed to do so and was turned over at 2-5. "She's going to be favourite, of course," Head shrugged. "But a race is a race. You never know. It's not going to be a cakewalk."

2009 Breeders' Cup Mile

BEST of the Day - Breeders' Cup 2009: Goldikova wins BC Mile!

Godikova! Just what I wanted to hear......

I think Goldikova is nearly as special as Zenyatta, and if she wins the Breeders' Cup Mile this year she will become the first horse to go back-to-back-to-back....a three-peat....in the Breeders' Cup.  She was my "BEST" of the day last year at the BC and could be this year.  But I've been waiting to read what her connections say.  Yesterday when I watched "Pursuit of the Cup" online they did a segment on Goldikova and quoted her trainer Freddie Head (who won back-to-back Breeders' Cup Miles on Miesque!) as saying he was "thrilled" with her work.  THAT IS WHAT I WANT TO HEAR!

Today in the "Handicapper's Edge" the following appeared about her.....

Head expounds on Goldikova
Freddie Head said Tuesday that GOLDIKOVA's (Ire) (Anabaa) preparation for a record-breaking third successive victory in the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) is going smoothly.
"Goldikova's work has been good and she seems in great form," said the trainer, speaking at his yard on the edge of Chantilly, France. "We haven't changed anything this year and had the same prep race. It was even better this year as we won the Prix de la Foret (Fr-G1) so for the moment all is well. I don't think she can do better than she is."
The five-year-old's two previous wins in the Mile came at the Santa Anita, whereas Churchill Downs hosts this year's Breeders' Cup. But Head is not worried by the change of venue, with Goldikova aiming to be the first horse to win three Breeders' Cup races.
"Going to Churchill Downs this year does not change much -- all the American tracks are about the same. “The weather may be a little cooler. I don't want too much rain. They have been having a very dry spell there and I hope it lasts. Even if it does rain, the ground is not going to be as soft as it was at Longchamp the other day (for the Prix de la Foret).
"She is traveling to America on Saturday -- it takes 12 hours -- she ships to Louisville or Lexington with a stop at (London) Stansted to put the English horses on the plane. She is a very good traveler and does not sweat much.
"We had a very bad draw last year -- we had ridden from the front in the Prix de la Foret and got beat and so I told Olivier (Peslier) to wait a bit with her -- he was a bit further back than we wanted but that is the way races turn out. I was a little worried for sure -- she was a long way behind the leaders in the back straight.  But Olivier knew what he was doing.
"This year we led again in the Prix de la Foret but she did not fight with him -- that was the big difference. She is very fast -- she loves the speed. There is no doubt that is why she is so brilliant in the States because they start fast which we do not do here -- the stalls open and everybody stops and holds back. The faster they go, the better she is and firm ground is good for her.



Getting Closer!

All weekend I worked on the Breeders' Cup Program for my fellow adventurers.  And I also put the finishing touches on our "Stable Competition" game that was so successful last spring.  Everyone has to have a design for their stable silks, here's mine:

Note the Florida Gator theme :)

And I also finished my PRELIMINARY selections.....with two weeks to go, here they are.....

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Friday November 5

$500,000 Grade 2
Breeders' Cup Marathon

There are three horses I would "lean" towards, but no one I have any confidence in....

PASS

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$1 million Grade 2
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

I was very impressed with Winter Memories win in New York. The others are all lumped together in a "who knows?" pile. I was impressed enough to double the bet.....

$10 to win on WINTER MEMORIES

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$1 million Grade 2
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

As of today there are three solid contenders that I wouldn't have any problem backing in this race. My final decision will be based on the past performances and comparing their 2010 campaign/records with the profiles from "Crushing the Cup 2010."

Sweet August Moon was dominant in the A Gleem at Hollywood this summer when she paid over $26 for me - as a California sprinter she'd be a good fit. Secret Gypsy is the best filly sprinter on the east coast, and she was a short priced dominant winner for me this summer - she is a solid contender. But, if I were betting today I would go with Switch. She's been in stakes races at all distances and surfaces in California and she's solid. But what makes her my top selection is that she was a very narrow 2nd to the Queen - Zenyatta. If Switch prepares well and shows that race didn't take too much out of her, the turn back to 7 furlongs - and as a Southern Cal sprinter - she'd be a great selection!

$10 to win on SWITCH

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$2 million Grade 1 Emirates Airline
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf

Without having seen the past performances, EVERY publication and video I've seen about the Breeders' Cup talks about what a short-priced and solid favorite Midday will be. She won this race last year, and the "repeater" angle makes her a good fit for the profile; the fact she is from Europe is even better. She may well be the "Best" of the 2010 Breeders' Cup.

$50 to win on MIDDAY

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$2 million Grade 1 Grey Goose
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

I would love to see Awesome Feather win as a Calder-based filly. I would also be happy to see Tell A Kelly win as she was my pick (running 2nd) in the Oak Tree Oaks. Not enough confidence in either to hazard a bet....though I'd be tempted if Awesome Feather was a big price.

PASS

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$2 million Grade 1
Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic

This race comes down to three fillies - two solid contenders and an interesting longshot. I've followed Acoma ever since she was a big winner for me last fall at Churchill.....on the turf. She was 2nd twice over her home turf and did not run well in the Beverly D, a race she'd pointed to. But then she surprised on the main track (albeit synthetic) at Keeneland in the Grade 1 Spinster. She has to be considered here.

But the two favorites will be Life at Ten and Blind Luck. Life at Ten has won twice for me as the "BEST" of the Day, but she needs to be loose on the lead, and unless the past performances show that she is the only front runner I'd be willing to go against her. I've made Blind Luck "my horse" all summer, ever since her thrilling win in the Kentucky Oaks - HERE AT CHURCHILL! She'd be my solid choice in here.

$20 to win on BLIND LUCK

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Saturday November 6

$1 million Grade 2
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

Rogue Romance was a big time winner at Belmont with a devastating finishing kick. Good enough to get a minimum play to kick off the Saturday races. I would be open to a Euro runner if they came with some solid credentials.

$5 to win on ROGUE ROMANCE

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$1 million Grade 1
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile

Twirling Candy would still be my selection here, but he doesn't appear to be headed to the Breeders' Cup. If he shows up, I'd re-think my pick.....so I reserve that right! Musket Man SHOULD have won the Monmouth Cup as he was 2/5 and laid all over the field, but failed to pass the price front-runner. That 9 furlong race would have him set up nicely for this race....but he appears to be going to the Classic - BIG mistake! I was impressed with Haynesfield's wire-to-wire win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup going 9 furlongs over Classic co-favorite Blame. The turnback to a 1-turn mile may be him on a lonesome lead; and that's enough to make him my choice.

$5 to win on HAYNESFIELD

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$1 million Grade 1
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint

I would give Gotta Have Her a serious look if she shows up here as she's been a solid closer on the Santa Anita turf, sprinting as well as routing. Silver Timber would be a solid fit, and he loves Churchill Downs. But my horse, all year for this race has been Chamberlain Bridge. I've been wavering as he does not seem to want to rate off the pace this year, but instead come from well back.......then I read in "Crushing the Cup" that the winning profile for the Churchill 5 furlong turf distance - DEEP CLOSER! I think they've been prepping him all year long. SOLID SELECTION!!!

$15 to win on CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE

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$2 million Grade 1 Grey Goose
Breeders' Cup Juvenile

I really thought this race came down to J P's Gusto vs. Boys at Tosconova. Then JP seemed to show he doesn't want a route of ground and Boys at T passed on the Champaign for no good reason. EVERYONE was raving about 2nd time starter Uncle Mo in the Champagne. Off a maiden win, could he jump right into Grade 1 stakes company, and get a route of ground. Indeed he could, and impressively. I think he's a SOLID favorite here.

$20 to win on UNCLE MO

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$2 million Grade 1 TVG
Breeders' Cup Mile

Without question I think that the Breeders' Cup Mile will be the most exciting race of the two days. Any one of six horses - who've all (but one) been my "BEST" would be a deserving winner. But two-time defending champion, the super French filly Goldikova is clearly the horse to beat. She has pointed for this race since winning last year. I was a little disconcerted when her rival from Europe - Paco Boy - who she's beaten many times, decided to come over.....what do they know? Why come across the Atlantic unless they think they have a good chance to turn the tables? And then there is the fact that no horse - EVER - has won a BC race three times. Still, hard to go against Goldikova unless in the pre-race preparations there is anything besides super confidence from her barn.

$30 to win on GOLDIKOVA

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$2 million Grade 1 Sentinent Jet
Breeders' Cup Sprint

Attaboy Roy was a dominant winner at Churchill this spring under Churchill super-jockey Calvin Borel. Then he was a beyond dominant winner of an added money sprint at Remington Park, with the stated goal that he'd train up to the BC Sprint. But he showed up on the turf a couple weeks ago at Keeneland....what was that about? I think it was to build some foundation. He's the sprint champ.

$10 to win on ATTABOY ROY

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$3 million Grade 1 Emirates Airline
Breeders' Cup Turf

I'm VERY on the fence here. The one thing I know is that it will be a Euro runner who wins. Which one? I will be shopping for a price play for sure - this race is WIDE OPEN! But for today, I'll land on Workforce who everyone was so happy to see make the trip over.

$5 to win on WORKFORCE

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$5 million Grade 1
Breeders' Cup Classic

Quality Road was a superhorse this winter and has had a very well planned campaign leading to this. But he had no excuse in being run down in the Whitney; and his win in the Woodward was less than impressive - I think he's in front turning for home, but has no answer when the finishers come calling. I think Lookin At Lucky will run big today; but he's not as good as these - yet. Next year!

That brings us down to Blame - who could be "Horse of the Year" with a win here, and he LOVES the Churchill strip and Zenyatta. Seriously - can anyone beat Zenyatta? I am a BIG TIME believer that they have never really asked her to run; and I also think she will be even better on the dirt - her two best races were the two on the dirt at Oaklawn. That's a scary thought. I am certain Zenyatta will be flying to the lead, right about the time she reaches the 16th pole.....right in front of us! What a "Classic" moment - she finishes unbeaten at 20-0 and a two-time BC Classic winner with us sitting there!

$50 to win on ZENYATTA

Breeders' Cup 2010 - Here We Come!

Here's the first, of what I hope, are many promos for the upcoming World Championships. Many of "my horses" are featured in this about 1 1/2 minute promo.....Quality Road, Blame, Blind Luck, Evening Jewel, Sidney's Candy, Paddy O'Prado, Gio Ponti, Rachel Alexandra (since retired), Lookin At Lucky, and of course, the Queen.....Zenyatta!

Breeders' Cup World Championships: The Highest Level

A great look at "The Breeders' Cup" as a topic - what I've been researching for the past year, plus. In 11:00 min you get an overview of what the Breeders' Cup is - more than a horse race, it is the "super bowl" of thoroughbred racing, and represents the end of year championships for all divisions of the sport AND a brand for the sport.

It's a BIG Weekend!

The first big news of the weekend was I got a new car!  It's a Mazda RX8 - a real sports car with six speed manual on the floor.  Very excited!  The first adventure with the new car was to head to Gulfstream Park today for the "Crushing The Cup" Seminar with local handicapper Jim Mazur.  He was giving away his book on the Breeders' Cup and we analyzed several races - as well as were provided with a free lunch.  Pretty cool.  But even better, he remembered me from our correspondence last year and this year, and was kind enough to pose for a picture with me.  I am hoping that this time next year I can start to head down the road he took - becoming a local handicapper gone national!





19 for 19 - Here's Z-E-N-Y-A-T-T-A!!!!

All nineteen stretch-runs.....unbelievable....



Secretariat!

Truly one of the greatest thoroughbreds to ever run, his story - and the story of his connections - is a great movie to watch....even if you aren't a thoroughbred racing fan.  The soundtrack provides an excellent backdrop, and the signature song may just be "the one" for my WISE Project "Preview."  Check out the video.....



An Inside Look At The Queen - Zenyatta

I came across this video put together after Zenyatta's 18th amazing win.  I thought it was very cool to "see" Zenyatta through the eyes of her handlers and jockey.  Check it out - it's a little over 9 minutes long....



Breeders' Cup Tickets Arrived!

Our Breeders' Cup tickets arrived!  HORRAY!

I signed up for the opportunity to buy Breeders' Cup tickets about 18 months ago, as soon as it was announced that the Breeders' Cup was going to be in Louisville.  I had not heard anything until last spring when I began to put together a "what we are going to do" memo to our BC fellow-travelers, when that very day I received an email telling me that since I'd signed up I was given an early opportunity - before the general public - to buy Breeders' Cup tickets.  After much study - as the web site allowed you to see what the view of the track would be - and economic analysis, because the closer you were to the finish line, and the higher up in the quality of the seat, obviously the more expensive the seats were - we selected seats and ordered tickets.  Our location is near mid-stretch and only four rows from the track!  See our view:

As you can see, we will have a GREAT view!  How expensive were they? you ask?  Well, let's start with a couple of comparisons......

This was the view from our seats for the Florida Derby.  The Florida Derby was a ONE-DAY event, and had five graded stakes, one of which was a Grade 1.  Ticket price per seat for this event:  $65.

If you got our seats TODAY for the Breeders' Cup, they are not available from the Breeders' Cup or Churchill Downs, but you can get them through a ticket-broker......cost PER DAY:  $100, for a total of $200.  But, unlike the Fla. Derby event, you get two days of racing, and there are TEN Grade 2 races (and five Grade 2 races).

But our price - because I signed up early.....only $75 TOTAL for TWO DAYS!  Great deal! I was so proud of myself :)







The Handicapper's Corner Opens

Today - October 7, 2010 - I have begun my new project......"The Handicapper's Corner" via blogging.  Welcome!

Prior to this blogging effort, I've kept my racing adventures in journal format on web pages.  You can visit my last handicapping project by clicking here.

The focus of this adventure will start with the 2010 Breeders' Cup - the World Championships of Thoroughbred Racing!  My wife and I have planned an adventure which includes four others as we head to Louisville, Kentucky to witness and participate in this great social event and weekend of racing.  Before the weekend of the Breeders' Cup I will focus my attention here on the horses who I see as the contenders for the divisional championships.  It is only fitting that the first entry, and the first horse featured would be the queen of racing - the unbeaten champion Zenyatta!

Zenyatta has won all 19 of her starts, the only horse of any gender to accomplish this.  She won the 2008 Ladies' Classic; and last year beat the boys in the penultimate race, the Breeders' Cup classic.  In doing so she became the ONLY filly/mare to ever win the BC Classic.  For a look back, watch this video:



That was a tremendous performance, and that was supposed to be Zenyatta's final race.  But her generous owners, Jerry & Ann Moss have brought her back to defend her title.  Her latest win, and her final prep for the 2010 Breeders' Cup was a thrilling race - her third victory in the Grade 1 Ladies' Secret at Oak Tree @ Hollywood Park.  Her she narrowly defeated the talented 3-year-old filly Switch in a stirring stretch run.  Check out this great race.......